Part-Time Pundit

Leak of Israel’s Plans to Nuke Iran Smells like BS

Drudge Report is splashing the news that the Sunday Times of London plans on reporting that Israel is planning a nuclear strike against Iran to head off Iran’s nuclear ambitions. According to Drudge:

Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons, the SUNDAY TIMES of London is planning to report, British media sources tell DRUDGE…

At first glance, the entire story smells of a fabrication. The obvious reason being that if Israel had secret plans to nuke Iran, they likely wouldn’t have been leaked. If they did get leaked, the police better start dredging the Sea of Galilee for the bodies of those involved. More importantly this leak gives huge benefits to Iran.

Israel is not stupid. A tactical nuclear weapon would likely do very little for a protected underground bunker. It is possible that either Drudge or the London Times doesn’t know precisely what a tactical nuclear weapon is. However, the fact remains in order to really do damage to the facility an ICBM (a strategic nuclear weapons) would need to be used. The momentum of a missile coming down from low earth orbit would be necessary to burrow deep enough to do the damage desired. There is indication that even then, the strike might not be successful.

One simulation indicated it would require 400 or so missiles to do the job. At best, entrances and exits from the underground facility could be collapses and that would certainly delay the program. The radiation from the strikes would need to dissipate and the tunnels would have to be rebuilt. It is possible such a strike could be times when Iran’s nuclear weapons were being brought above ground, but that would be extremely difficult to pull off.

Iran’s move to build its nuclear program underground was brilliant. They learned the lessons of Iraq in 1981. However, the key defense of the move is also its biggest weakness. Namely, any nuclear weapon developed underground could not be used until it is brought above ground at already known locations. A nuclear strike at those locations would keep the weapons out of Iranian hands underneath irradiated soil. That move, however, is only a temporary solution.

It is likely that both Israel and the US have drawn up simulations and plans but every indication is that they are a last resort. The other fact is that these plans aren’t precisely secret, at least in general. Leaking the plans now, just shortly after sanctions have been levied against Iran indicate that the plans were likely not coming from Israel.

Iran’s general tactic has been to run the clock and delay as much as possible. This indicates that they are likely very close to being finished making nuclear weapons which would change the dynamics of diplomacy greatly. They have every incentive to keep stalling until they’ve met that landmark.

This plan, being leaked now in the way it was only gives more cover to Iran. The international community and human rights groups will likely jump all over Israel and demand investigations and action. Despite basically looking the other way of actual genocide going on in Darfur, they’ll jump to action on the rumor of a hypothetical “genocide.” We’ll skip past the international community’s non-response over Iran’s very public desire to commit genocide against Israel.

This leaking has every indication that it was done by Iran, or a supporter or Iran, to give more cover and time. While international eyes are peering at Israel, Iran’s program will continue undeterred.

See others: Blogs of war, LGF, Wizbang, Ed Driscoll,

January 6th, 2007 Posted by John Bambenek | International, Iran, Military / War, Politics, Sudan, United Nations | 8 comments

When Knowing Ethics Too Well is an Ethics Violation

The governor’s office is facing a lawsuit over disclosure of the many subpoenas received by our illustrious government. Pay-to-play scams, hired truck, and hiring scams are rampant in the government of Illinois. So what does the Executive Investigator General target for investigation? People who take the annual ethics test too fast because they know the material already (or have an IQ above 70).

The news has made the rounds in Illinois that people who took the ethics test too fast were declared to be non-compliant. It appears that I am one of the people who knows the ethics law too well and has a sound moral compass.

My response was less than kind. The reason for this is as follows:

1) I don’t take kindly to being accused of an apparent crime.
2) I really don’t take kindly to being declared guilty of an apparent crime.
3) It’s especially obnoxious that I’ve been declared guilty of an apparent crime without any investigation, hearing, trial, consultation, or any of those other things that general constitute a just government.
4) My wife is a week and a half overdue. While this is obviously more an issue for her than it is for me, we’re both frayed and this letter turned my mood from sour to downright shitty.

I was in a hurry to get it written before I left the office so there are some typos at the end. The other interesting thing I noticed is that although I said such a violation is apparently a misdemeanor, I’m not so sure that’s its the case after a closer look at the statute. Article 50 stipulates the penalties. The training is required in Section 5-10. The penalty section doesn’t actually assign a penalty for section 5-10 so it is entirely possible (this is the point where a lawyer can come in and clarify) that not complying with the Ethics training requirement cannot be punished at all.

I’ve decided to make this public because it’s a public record anyway. That and I’m sure some enterprising C-list blogger will think he’s terribly clever for filing a FOIA and then declaring me to be unethical to interject that into my campaign for the Unit 4 school board.

At first, I thought I was believed I was fine because I seem to remember going to the bathroom in the middle of the training. Apparently it was before or after I did the web-based training. The training was relatively simple and everyone I know could have taken the test without looking at the accompanying material and aced it. Do we really need web-based classes to say “Thou Shalt Not Steal”? I realize some enterprising lawyer probably got some political connected corrupt crony off because no one ever told him stealing was bad, but that’s not the world I live in.

The training was virtually the same as last year and the material is intentionally written to be easy to understand. Besides being familiar with the material because I took the same training before, I’ve been through the ethics process twice (on the filing end, not the receiving end) so I’m familiar with reporting, the duty to report and whistleblower protections. I also come from a family of lawyers which makes me somewhat of a rule monger. We won’t get into the fact that I read very fast.

My response is harsh, yes. However, I don’t take kindly to being declared a criminal without so much as a hearing. I called the University Ethics Office and was told the decision was unappealable. On top of that, I don’t appreciate Jimenez suggesting that we committed additional crimes by developing a cheat sheet. I’m not sure what kind of people Jimenez hangs out with, but the people I associate with don’t need a cheat sheet for a test that didn’t even require looking at the material to pass. For the record, I read the material online and the packet they sent with the letter because I am required to.

I revised the form they sent for me to sign so that it didn’t admit guilt or even recognize a crime or offense has occurred and sent it back in. I would imagine that I will see no further problems. I still do hope the OEIG might find something better to do with their time.

=================================================
One does not need a bathroom guide to tell if the bathroom design is ok or not. Similarly to buy bathroom vanities and other supplies, one does not need to have the experience of buying. However a bathroom guide can come in handy when you are about to get bathroom furniture and will help you in choosing the material. Not only that, but it also has some really useful tips on window washer and making the most out of shower curtains.
=================================================

January 6th, 2007 Posted by John Bambenek | Chambana, Politics, Unit 4 Race, University of Illinois | 2 comments