Part-Time Pundit

War With Iran is Coming

The European project has failed. The EU has come out and said that diplomacy has failed and they are referring the matter to the Security Council. There is talk of economic sanctions, but economic sanctions alone have always been useless to deal with problems of this sort (see Cuba).

Make not mistake, Iran is building nukes. The issue would be easily resolved if Iran would allow public inspections of what they are up to and they have refused them. This barely concealed agenda is not lost on the Europeans who may waffle on terrorism are very concerned about weapons proliferation. It’s a question of whether China or Russia will stonewall, but the politics of this situation make it unlikely that either of those superpowers will get themselves alienated so Iran can make nukes and threaten Israel.

The timing of these developments almost sets up an invasion. US troops are already in Iraq, the next nation over, and will be scaling down operations in the coming months. Iraq has elected its own permanent government and as the dust settles, likely so will the terrorist attacks (generated in no small part because of the assistance of Iran). No one seriously would consider attacking Iran without the US onboard, and the US will surely be leading that operation. The EU military certainly isn’t up to the task.

While Iran is doing everything possible to push a confrontation including its saber-rattling towards Israel, there are political downsides domestically. The United States will ramp up for war (this time a globally supported one) during the 2006 election season making the election solely about war which will largely favor Republicans, and rightfully so. However, this will push other political issues back to the background. This shouldn’t be read into such as to assume I’m suggesting this is a big GOP conspiracy, I don’t think that at all.

However, several issues remain on the table, none the least of which is apparent corruption in Congress. With war going on, corruption will get forgotten. While the partisan witch-hunt that has developed is doing nothing to help matters, there are other efforts afoot that could help, such as the pushing of lobbying reform. Social Security will once again be forgotten and will stay unreformed and insolvent. Tax reform will be forgotten. Reforming the non-free market health care system will fall by the wayside.

The fact is being in a solid majority has made the GOP rest on their laurels not pushing for the limited-government conservative ideals that put them in power. War, while seemingly necessary in this case, will exaggerate this problem. The upcoming elections could provide the necessary motivation for the GOP to stand for the principles they enunciate and the unfortunate reality is that if war does come, the reigning-in will most likely be postponed.

January 12th, 2006 Posted by John Bambenek | Iran, Military / War, National, Politics | 3 comments